Skip to content

DEATHS IN ENGLAND FROM DELTA VARIANT BETWEEN VACCINATED AND UNVACCINATED: WE READ THE DATA CORRECTLY.

The UK is providing a #8217-enormity of data on the #8217 trend of #8217 the epidemic, among the many documents we find the “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England – Technical briefing 16” https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 which shows an interesting table on the spread of cases, emergency room access and deaths attributed to the Delta variant, dividing them on the basis of vaccination status (attached image).
.
The data reported by this table have been completely distorted and are used superficially by many conspiracy theorists for “support” l’uselessness or ineffectiveness of vaccines.
.
Their theses are:
-the number of deaths among the vaccinated (26 Deaths) is very similar to that among the unvaccinated (34 Deaths), so vaccines are useless
-the ratio of cases to deaths is greater among the vaccinated (4087 cases, 26 Deaths, deaths/cases = 0,63%), compared to the unvaccinated (35521 cases, 34 Deaths, deaths/cases = 0,096%) so the vaccinated have a higher risk of dying.
.
No, dear conspiracy theo player, this is not the case, just for nothing.
.
There are 2 Important things to consider:
-COVID leads to death only in very rare cases at a young age
-to estimate a risk you must always take into account the denominator, i.e. the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated people who are potentially exposed.
.
In the latest https report://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001354/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf, the number of deaths from delta variant has been defined both on the basis of vaccination status #8217 and on the basis of age (above or below 50 years), since it helps a lot to clarify the situation. We see that among the unvaccinated have been registered 38 deaths above 50 years and 6 deaths under 50, while among the vaccinated to 2 doses we had zero deaths below 50 years and 50 deaths above 50 years.
.
Now let's see the number of people vaccinated.
Among the amount of data officially published by the United Kingdom we find the vaccination coverage by #8217 age group of the #8217 England updated to the 23/5 https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualizations/dvc1434/ageovertimewrapper/datadownload.xlsx , which I reported in the attached histograms, both in percentage and in total number.
.
Per 23 May in England we had:
<50 aa: 18.687.910 unvaccinated; 6.320.104 vaccinated with 2 Doses
>50 aa: 4.883.757 unvaccinated; 14.502.087 vaccinated with 2 Doses
.
The very first deaths from delta variant were recorded at the end of May, so we can consider the coverage of the 23/5 as the minimum number of vaccinated subjects on the basis of which to calculate the risk.
If vaccines do not serve as ever on over 14 millions vaccinated above 50 years have been recorded 50 deaths and on less than 5 millions of unvaccinated 38?
Among the unvaccinated over50 there was one death every 128.520 while among the vaccinated one every 290.042. So the risk of death is at least halved.
In fact the risk is even lower, the data provided divide the deaths between over and under 50 but in the band 50-59 the risk of death is much lower than in the range 60-69 (about 1/4) and between the 4.883.757 unvaccinated in England over 50 years well 3.257.092 were in the band 50-59. If we had the data by single age group #8217 of deaths attributed to Delta, almost certainly an even greater efficac #8217 y of vaccines would emerge. In addition, in the weeks following the 23 May the vaccination coverage has further increased especially above the 50 years, further lowering the risk.
.
The usefulness #8217 of vaccines is even more evident if we look at the data of access to the emergency room: among the unvaccinated there were 2035 accesses under 50 years and 213 above i 50 years, while among the vaccinated to 2 Doses 94 under i 50 years and 254 above i 50 years.
.
Considering the denominator we have:
-one access in PS every 9.183 unvaccinated under the 50 years and one access each 22.928 unvaccinated above 50 years.
-one access in PS every 67.235 vaccinated to 2 doses below 50 years and one access each 57.095 vaccinated to 2 doses above 50 years. So a much lower risk for the vaccinated.
.
If we read the data correctly we see that even with the delta variant the vaccinated get sick less (fewer cases), they go less to the emergency room and die less!
.
PS to further clarification: when you look at the cases / hospitalizations / deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated remember that among the unvaccinated there are very few subjects with more than 60 years, so you are comparing 2 two populations absolutely not homogeneous by age.
I added a ’image in which you can see the different age distribution of vaccinated and unvaccinated above the 50 years to 23/5. In the following weeks the vaccination continued increasing the discrepancy.
Among the unvaccinated we have very few subjects with more than 65 years that have almost all been vaccinated.
If we have 1000 infected over50 vaccinated, we will also have many large elderly people with significant risk of death even if vaccinated. Among the unvaccinated I will have almost exclusively subjects among the 50-59 years.