We're learning about this infection and the way it spreads, now we have so many experiences from other countries in the world to think about.
In some states it's all pretty quiet for months despite the virus entering their borders (South Korea, Taiwan, Greece, New Zealand).
Others do not appear to be able to contain the first wave (Mexico, for example).
Other countries are facing a second wave (Iran, Serbia, Israel).
In the US in some states it's all under control, others are in trouble.
Sweden applied soft measures early on, avoiding a lockdown, had far more deaths than “Neighbors” but less than other European countries.
There are very different scenarios in the world.
What we can learn from these situations:
-should not underestimate an increase in cases. An increase in cases is followed by, late, necessarily the increase #8217 in admissions and deaths. The ratio of curves depends on the testing capabilities, average age #8217 of infected individuals and the capacity of health systems (see USA).
-test, "It's not just about the #8217, it's about the same way," he said. (Korea).
-lockdown is the most extreme measure, very effective in bringing down the contagio>e-contaminas but harmful to the #8217;economy (Italy).
-lifestyle has a lot of influence on infections. The pre-epidemic Italian lifestyle led to R0 3-3,5. The lockdown at 0,3-0,5.
Between these two extremes there are so many nuances and the current lifestyle allows an R0 close to ’1.
-Spain, climatically and culturally close to us, is facing a new increase in cases these days and some areas have been put in lockdown.
We can say that a second wave will not necessarily wait for the cold weather.
September will be an extremely critical moment, in my opinion: we will see at the same time the repopulation of cities, the reopening of many businesses/activities and the reopening of schools.
There will be a gradual reduction in activities and life to the ’open.
What can we do?
We must work today to make people understand that it is essential to continue to keep all the attention, social distance, masks indoors or when you can't keep your distance, hygiene standards.
We need to install and incentivize the #8217 use of immune to facilitate tracking.
We must always pay close attention to hospitals and RSA (almost the 40-50% of the infections come from here).
We need to train citizens to understand what is going on and to self-exate at the first symptoms.
We need to encourage flu vaccination both to reduce flu mortality and to reduce cases that could be confused with COVID.
Insist that smart working continue.
Public Health will need to work hard to ensure testing, contact tracking and isolation and to filter cases from ’foreign.
The Italians have been better than many others in both the lockdown and the later stages, we must continue on this path and avoid new waves.